braggR

0.1.1

Calculate the Revealed Aggregator of Probability Predictions

0packages depend

2.5Kdownloads / year

12.7%test coverage

11/13checks pass

Overview

About

Maintained by Ville SatopääFirst published 2021-04-232 releasesCRAN page ↗

Forecasters predicting the chances of a future event may disagree due to differing evidence or noise. To harness the collective evidence of the crowd, Ville Satopää (2021) "Regularized Aggregation of One-off Probability Predictions" https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3769945 proposes a Bayesian aggregator that is regularized by analyzing the forecasters' disagreement and ascribing over-dispersion to noise. This aggregator requires no user intervention and can be computed efficiently even for a large numbers of predictions. The author evaluates the aggregator on subjective probability predictions collected during a four-year forecasting tournament sponsored by the US intelligence community. The aggregator improves the accuracy of simple averaging by around 20% and other state-of-the-art aggregators by 10-25%. The advantage stems almost exclusively from improved calibration. This aggregator -- know as "the revealed aggregator" -- inputs a) forecasters' probability predictions (p) of a future binary event and b) the forecasters' common prior (p0) of the future event. In this R-package, the function sample_aggregator(p,p0,...) allows the user to calculate the revealed aggregator. Its use is illustrated with a simple example.

Install

R (CRAN)Ubuntu (r2u)Fedora (COPR)openSUSE (OBS)

install.packages("braggR", repos = "https://cloud.r-project.org/")

Installs the current CRAN release. Prebuilt binaries on Windows and macOS.

Release

# enable cranapt (r2u) if it is not already set up, then install
grep -rqs r2u.stat.illinois.edu /etc/apt/sources.list /etc/apt/sources.list.d/ \
  || curl -fsSL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/eddelbuettel/r2u/master/inst/scripts/add_cranapt_noble.sh | sudo bash
sudo apt install -y r-cran-braggr

Fast Ubuntu binaries via r2u (no compilation). The cranapt setup runs once and is skipped when it is already enabled.

bspm (used by r2u) also needs make: sudo apt install make

# enable the iucar/cran COPR if it is not already present, then install
ls /etc/yum.repos.d/*iucar*cran*.repo >/dev/null 2>&1 \
  || sudo dnf copr enable -y iucar/cran
sudo dnf install -y R-CRAN-braggR

RPMs from the iucar/cran COPR, rebuilt from CRAN.

For install.packages() integration in R, also: sudo dnf install R-CoprManager

# add the autoCRAN OBS repo (Tumbleweed) if it is missing, then install
zypper -q lr | grep -qi autoCRAN \
  || sudo zypper addrepo https://download.opensuse.org/repositories/devel:/languages:/R:/autoCRAN/openSUSE_Tumbleweed/devel:languages:R:autoCRAN.repo
sudo zypper install -y R-braggR

RPMs auto-built from CRAN on openSUSE OBS (Tumbleweed).

Health

CRAN checks

2NOTE11OK

Failing flavors

NOTE r-devel-linux-x86_64-debian-clang
NOTE r-devel-linux-x86_64-debian-gcc

Slowest check: 1.5 min · r-oldrel-windows-x86_64

Code health

Yes

Tests · ratio 0.20

12.7%

Coverage · measured lines

100%

Documentation · exports

Dependencies · direct

Check history

NOTE2026-04-22
12 OK · 2 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE
ERROR2026-04-18
11 OK · 2 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 1 ERROR · 0 FAILURE
NOTE2026-03-10
12 OK · 2 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE

Documentation

READMEYes · 275 wordsVignettesNopkgdown siteNoNEWSNoCode of conductNoContributing guideNo

Examples that run: 100%
Documented parameters: 60%
Return-value docs: 100%
References docs: 0%

Downloads

2.5K

CRAN downloads in the past year

Rank #18,191 · ~7/day · ~207/mo

Releases R versions

Daily download trend is not available in this view yet.

20330 days

61490 days

2.5K1 year

Compare downloads with other packages →

Also on467 r2u

Dependencies

Declared dependencies

3 external dependencies (excludes base and recommended)

Depends (0)

none

Imports (1)

Rcpp

LinkingTo (1)

Rcpp

Suggests (1)

testthat

Enhances (0)

none

Dependency license breakdown →

Reverse dependencies

0direct

0indirect

Nothing depends on this yet.

Code & Tests

People & History

People (1)

Maintainer (1)

Ville Satopää

Author, Maintainer, Copyright holder

Authors (1)

Ville Satopää

Author, Maintainer, Copyright holder

Ville Satopää

Author, Maintainer, Copyright holder

Package Timeline

2 releases. Pick two to compare their code metrics. R releases are shown for context.

R
R 4.6.0 released · 2026-04-24
R
R 4.5.0 released · 2025-04-11
R
R 4.4.0 released · 2024-04-24
R
R 4.3.0 released · 2023-04-21
R
R 4.2.0 released · 2022-04-22
0.1.1Latest
2021-05-29 · current release · diff ↗
R
R 4.1.0 released · 2021-05-18
0.1.0
2021-04-23
R
R 4.0.0 released · 2020-04-24

Package metadata

First published: 2021-04-23
Total releases: 2 / 5 yrs
License: GPL-2 OSI
Download size: 8.0 KB
Installed size: not tracked yet
With dependencies: not tracked yet

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