ErrorTracer

1.2.1

Bayesian Error Propagation and Forecast Uncertainty Decomposition

0packages depend

436downloads / year

58.5%test coverage

11/11checks pass

Overview

About

Maintained by Luis Javier Madrigal-RocaFirst published 2026-05-043 releasesCRAN page ↗

Provides a full pipeline from regularized or standard regression models (elastic net, linear models, generalized linear models, random forests) to informed Bayesian priors, structured forecast uncertainty decomposition (parameter / environmental / residual, plus a temporal component when the model carries an autocorrelation term), and forecast shelf life analysis (the quantification of when a forecast becomes uninformative). Designed for ecological and genomic forecasting with climate or environmental covariates. Methods build on Bürkner (2017) doi:10.18637/jss.v080.i01 for Bayesian regression via 'Stan', Friedman, Hastie, and Tibshirani (2010) doi:10.18637/jss.v033.i01 for elastic net regularization, Wright and Ziegler (2017) doi:10.18637/jss.v077.i01 for random forests, and Vehtari, Gelman, and Gabry (2017) doi:10.1007/s11222-016-9696-4 for leave-one-out cross-validation.

Install

R (CRAN)Ubuntu (r2u)openSUSE (OBS)

install.packages("ErrorTracer", repos = "https://cloud.r-project.org/")

Installs the current CRAN release. Prebuilt binaries on Windows and macOS.

Release

# enable cranapt (r2u) if it is not already set up, then install
grep -rqs r2u.stat.illinois.edu /etc/apt/sources.list /etc/apt/sources.list.d/ \
  || curl -fsSL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/eddelbuettel/r2u/master/inst/scripts/add_cranapt_noble.sh | sudo bash
sudo apt install -y r-cran-errortracer

Fast Ubuntu binaries via r2u (no compilation). The cranapt setup runs once and is skipped when it is already enabled.

bspm (used by r2u) also needs make: sudo apt install make

# add the autoCRAN OBS repo (Tumbleweed) if it is missing, then install
zypper -q lr | grep -qi autoCRAN \
  || sudo zypper addrepo https://download.opensuse.org/repositories/devel:/languages:/R:/autoCRAN/openSUSE_Tumbleweed/devel:languages:R:autoCRAN.repo
sudo zypper install -y R-ErrorTracer

RPMs auto-built from CRAN on openSUSE OBS (Tumbleweed).

Health

CRAN checks

11OK

Slowest check: 4.1 min · r-release-macos-x86_64

Check history

OK2026-07-20
7 OK · 0 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE
ERROR2026-05-26
11 OK · 0 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 2 ERROR · 0 FAILURE
OK2026-05-05
7 OK · 0 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE

Documentation

Documentation signals are not tracked yet for this package.

Downloads

436

CRAN downloads in the past year

Rank #23,532 · ~1/day · ~36/mo

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Also on20 r2u15 autocran

Dependencies

Declared dependencies

14 external dependencies (excludes base and recommended)

Depends (1)

R >= 4.1.0

Imports (5)

brms ggplot2 rlangstatsutils

LinkingTo (0)

none

Suggests (11)

loo bayesplot scales tidyr glmnet ranger dplyr testthat knitr rmarkdown covr

Enhances (0)

none

Dependency license breakdown →

Reverse dependencies

0direct

0indirect

Nothing depends on this yet.

Code & Tests

People & History

People (2)

Maintainer (1)

Luis Javier Madrigal-Roca

Author, Maintainer

Authors (2)

Luis Javier Madrigal-Roca

Author, Maintainer

John Kelly

Author

Package Timeline

3 releases. R releases are shown for context.

1.2.1Latest
2026-07-19 · current release · diff ↗
unarchivedReturned to CRAN
2026-07-19
archivedRemoved from CRAN
2026-06-08
issues were not corrected in time
1.1.0
2026-05-25 · diff ↗
1.0.2
2026-05-04
R
R 4.6.0 released · 2026-04-24

Package metadata

First published: 2026-05-04
Total releases: 3 / 1 yrs
License: MIT + file LICENSE OSI
Download size: not tracked yet
Installed size: not tracked yet
With dependencies: not tracked yet

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