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BayesMortalityPlus

Bayesian Mortality Modelling

v1.0.0 · Jul 10, 2025 · GPL-3

Description

Fit Bayesian graduation mortality using the Heligman-Pollard model, as seen in Heligman, L., & Pollard, J. H. (1980) <doi:10.1017/S0020268100040257> and Dellaportas, Petros, et al. (2001) <doi:10.1111/1467-985X.00202>, and dynamic linear model (Campagnoli, P., Petris, G., and Petrone, S. (2009) <doi:10.1007/b135794_2>). While Heligman-Pollard has parameters with a straightforward interpretation yielding some rich analysis, the dynamic linear model provides a very flexible adjustment of the mortality curves by controlling the discount factor value. Closing methods for both Heligman-Pollard and dynamic linear model were also implemented according to Dodd, Erengul, et al. (2018) <https://www.jstor.org/stable/48547511>. The Bayesian Lee-Carter model is also implemented to fit historical mortality tables time series to predict the mortality in the following years and to do improvement analysis, as seen in Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992) <doi:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265> and Pedroza, C. (2006) <doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxj024>. Journal publication available at <doi:10.18637/jss.v113.i09>.

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Check History

OK 14 OK · 0 NOTE · 0 WARNING · 0 ERROR · 0 FAILURE Mar 9, 2026

Dependency Network

Dependencies Reverse dependencies MASS progress tidyr scales ggplot2 magrittr dplyr mvtnorm BayesMortalityPlus

Version History

new 1.0.0 Mar 9, 2026